First Quarter Commercial Real Estate Sales Up in US Too

After posting yesterday about the tremendous year over year increase in City of Peterborough commercial real estate sales (Yeah, I know it's a small number -> 8 vs 3 sales, but this isn't a major metropolitan area either!), this tidbit was released today on nreionline.com:

Q1 CRE Sales: Change in Attitude

Apr 26, 2010 1:55 PM, By Ben Johnson, a special to NREI from OKCREview

What a difference a year makes. You hear that a lot around the commercial real estate industry today, especially when it comes to the overall investment sales market.

According to new data from New York-based researcher Real Capital Analytics (RCA), sales volume reached $15.4 billion, which is a 50% increase from the first quarter of 2009. More good news: Every property type registered higher volume.

Surprisingly, despite the huge overhang of distressed properties, it was core rather than distressed sales behind the volume gains. Sharp declines in cap rates were recorded for certain assets due to competition among buyers and the rapidly improving debt markets that are allowing buyers access to low interest rates.

Let the good times roll....I can dream can't I?


Source: http://bit.ly/8XQ2gF

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Commercial Real Estate Recovery Stronger Than Many Realize

The recovery is stronger than many realize, says Chaim Katzman, chairman of Gazit-Globe and Equity One. His reasoning? Good deals still are very scarce. Katzman has been raising capital and recycling funds through new partnerships in anticipation of more investment opportunities coming to market, he says. "The bid-ask spread is narrowing as more people realize that things aren't as bad as they first thought," he says.

Video Link: http://bit.ly/aYNuao

Source: reit.com

More videos from NAREIT: http://www.youtube.com/NAREIT1

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Commercial Real Estate Bottoming

In reference to the ever popular claim, "Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop" - which, in my opinion, is the most over-hyped and over-used sensationalist claim in modern business reporting history - Walt Rakowich, CEO of Prologis says:

"...the shoe has dropped....that's old news..." - emphasis added

Time to start looking at the next part of the cycle folks.

via Deal Junkie

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Should You Renovate to Attract and Retain Tenants?

Are you a small independent landlord trying to rent your properties? Consider renovating them. A recent survey indicates that over half of small, independent landlords are renovating vacant properties in an effort to differentiate themselves from the competition and attract tenants. Renovations don’t just help you attract new tenants; they help you retain current tenants as well.

“With so many homes and apartments sitting empty, landlords want their properties to stand out from the competition,” says Tracey Benson, president of The National Association of Independent Landlords. “Even if landlords have no rent coming in, they need to bite the bullet and make improvements to put their properties on renters’ short lists.”

The Association recently conducted a survey of landlords across the country and found that over half (52%) of smaller, independent landlords who expect the difficult rental market to continue are renovating their vacant properties. Over three-quarters of these landlords (76%) are doing so in an effort to attract tenants, while 42% of respondents said they are renovating to keep current tenants from moving.

But you don’t need to install high-end accoutrements like granite counters, stainless steel appliances or laminate floors to attract or retain tenants. Even low-budget investments like new carpeting or a fresh coat of paint can make a difference.

“Just about any improvement will make a property look better than one that hasn’t received much TLC,” Benson says.

For more information on how to attract or retain tenants in your apartment properties, or to learn about available properties, give our Century 21® office a call today.


Source: Century 21® USA

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Point of Capitulation Reached in U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Great video from CNBC on the state of commercial real estate according to Barry Gosin, CEO of Newmark Knight Frank.



Of particular interest to me were his words, "The market has, for the most part, capitulated." This is important because it reflects the words of some of my clients - they have been looking for this 'capitulation' so that they can get back into the market and start buying again.

Do I agree with them that they needed to wait for this point of capitulation?  Not at all.  A good deal is a good deal is a good deal regardless of what everyone else is doing and it's always the right time to buy if the fundamentals of that particular deal make sense.

Why am I happy to hear this kind of talk then?  It means that the market is catching up with common sense and we can get back to business!  Don't wait any longer to look at investing in commercial real estate.  Let's get back at it!

If you're ready to get started, call me.

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Bludgeoned Commercial Real Estate Has Begun To Entice Chinese Bottom Feeders

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It IS Time to Buy Commercial Real Estate

Found this on a cre-advice.com and it mirrors what I'm starting to hear in the market and what I've been screaming from the roof-tops:

Investors have to do something with their money: You can buy in to the investment grade bond market and earn a whopping 3.75%, or you can buy NNN leased, credit tenant real estate and more than double your return. As Bill Gross of PIMCO points out as a cost of capital sitting on the sidelines: “an effective zero percent interest rate, as a price for hiding in a foxhole, is prohibitive.” In 2010, buyers will exit the payless funds earning close to 0% in search of manageable risk. Quality commercial real estate will receive considerable attention in this context.

Because problems with debt structure will motivate a large number of sales, pricing will remain in flux in the next year. As a result, headline measures of cap rates will fail as indicators of the underlying variation in property trades. Rather, buyers and sellers alike will be depending on their Advisor’s knowledge of the market and of the emerging mechanisms of exchange – such as auctions – to guide their investment strategy. Investors with strong operational capabilities who are seeking to acquire assets over the next year are in an ideal position. This group will be able to purchase assets during a period of dislocation, before asset prices normalize and while long-term yields are at the their peak.

What do you think? Would you rather sit back and 'enjoy' 2-3% returns when you know that inflation will eat up most of your buying power over the next several years, or get into a solid commercial real estate investment where you should be able to crank out at least 7% for the forseeable future?  Sounds like a simple choice to me.

Ready to buy?  Contact me.

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Have We Learned Anything From The Meltdown?

TORONTO, Dec. 15 /CNW/ - A new Ernst & Young report reveals that a shifting and vastly different post-recession real estate landscape has executives grappling with lingering challenges.

Top 10 lessons learned in real estate: Ernst & Young

Below are 10 lessons from change that have emerged for the sector, which are also quickly becoming trends for 2010. According to the report, those who take heed of this advice are more likely to continue to adapt and grow in an increasingly global and competitive real estate market:

1. Focus on capital preservation - Most real estate executives are and will continue to be concerned with stabilizing their organizations and enhancing their ability to access capital and improve the flexibility of their balance sheets. Maintaining liquidity is paramount to capitalizing on future opportunities.

2. Form strategic alliances and/or partnerships with foreign investors - Partnerships will be formed to acquire assets on a scale never seen before. Expect Canadian companies with strong balance sheets to venture into foreign markets.

3. Provide more effective risk management and protection of asset values - Real estate companies are revamping their framework to more effectively manage risk. Pricing risk appropriately will define future growth.

4. Provide an increased focus on tenants - Property owners are becoming more diligent in evaluating the creditworthiness of tenants to determine who might present a risk. In light of this, underwriting will become even more stringent.

5. Evaluate supply chain and contractors - Corporations who hire developers and construction contractors are evaluating the risks of having financially troubled contractors/suppliers who could file for bankruptcy and stop work on a project.

6. Prepare for increased taxes and government regulation - Companies are preparing for regulatory framework - around private equity investment funds in particular, as well as arranging for fuller disclosure of investment plans, asset verification and other information of interest to shareholders.

7. Control costs and streamline operations - Companies are improving their overall performance, with issues such as tying executive compensation to performance resurfacing.

8. Look at Canada's relationship with the US - While there are noticeable differences between Canada and the US in terms of macro-economic structure and real estate fundamentals, don't overlook the influence and effect of our largest trading partner.

9. Accelerate decision-making - Decisions are being made more quickly to take advantage of shorter windows of opportunity and to respond more quickly to adverse developments.

10. Concentrate on long-term growth - Real estate executives are thinking about the future. They're looking at extending their company's market reach, building relationships, thinking creatively and strengthening their management capabilities.

From my perspective one of the most important lessons on this list is number nine, accelerate decision-making. Why? As more and more opportunities come back onto the market it'll become even more important than in the past to be able to make quicker acquisition decisions because there WILL be more competition for those assets. Slow decisions were a problem in the last boom when even well heeled tenants, investors and developers seemed hamstrung by indecision and this will continue to be a challenge going forward.

How do you see your company reacting to new opportunities as they become available? Have you got a plan to be able to streamline your acquisition process when deals are put on your table?

Source: Top 10 lessons learned in real estate: Ernst & Young

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He Who Hesitates Is Lost or "If You Wait for the Robins, Spring Will Be Over"

Thanks to TrafficCourt and David Bodamer who picked up William Ackman's ICSC Report in New York:
ICSC Mall REIT Presentation 12-7-2009


Some of the relevant highlights from the above report:

• The U.S. economy has recovered
• The U.S. consumer is beginning to bounce back
• The credit markets have improved
• Mall REIT balance sheets have strengthened
• Cap rates have declined substantially
• Store closure fears were overblown
• Tenants are much better capitalized
• Rent relief has been minimal
• Tenant sales are down, but inventories are down even more while retailer cash flows have improved materially

Which would you rather own?

1) A 10-yr Treasury at a 3.4% yield
2) A 10-yr TIP at a 1.3% yield, or
3) Shares in a mall REIT at a 7.5%, 7.0%, or even 6.0% cap rate

Conclusions:

• During one of the worst recessions in over 50 years, mall REITs and their tenants have proven to be highly resilient
• Consumer spending does not need to return to 2007 levels for mall REITs and their tenants to outperform
• Store closures of underperforming tenants is a long-term positive for the mall industry
• Tenant cash flows and balance sheets have massively improved over the last twelve months
• Many opportunistic retailers have substantial growth plans. Retailers on the sidelines are just like those investors who didn’t buy stocks in the spring

Looks like I'm not the only one who thinks that the market is turning for the better! Tell me what you think of this report - are Mr. Ackman and I out to lunch?

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28 Qualities, Skills and Traits That Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Clients Watch For: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Today, a review of the 28 things that commercial brokerage clients look for when choosing, working with, and firing(!) agents. Over the last week or so you've seen these lists in several posts, but I thought it would be a good idea to gather all of these ideas into one resource page that can be accessed easily.

The Lists:

Top 7 Skills and Qualities Investors Look For in a Broker:

1. Direct solicitation of potential buyers.
2. Quality communications and follow through.
3. Accuracy and quality of financial analysis.
4. Negotiation skills.
5. Quality of investment package.
6. Quality of research.
7. Team assigned to their transaction.

The Top 7 Things Tenants Look for in a Commercial Real Estate Broker:

1. Understanding of their business.
2. Open communications and accessibility.
3. A relationship built on trust and concern.
4. Financial/analytical skills and structuring advice.
5. Collaboration and a team approach to their needs.
6. Understanding of the market and opportunities.
7. Accompaniment on building tours.

The Top 7 Things Clients Look for When Selecting a Commercial Real Estate Broker:

1. Relationship with Broker.
2. Prior experience/performance.
3. Reputation of firm/brand identity.
4. Understanding of their business/objectives.
5. Personalized approach/solutions.
6. Fee structure.
7. Knowledge and advice.

The Top 7 Things That Frustrate Brokerage Clients:

1. Lack and poor quality of communications.
2. Lack of accessiblility to their broker.
3. Sloppy work, inaccuracies and poor research.
4. Feeling that they are just a commission source.
5. Brokers not knowing when they are "over their heads".
6. Lack of interest in their business needs and goals.
7. Lone Rangers and "listing-only" solutions.

So, you say, what's the point? Well, looking at each of these in turn and thinking about what they mean to existing and potential clients, we can see that there a number of solutions and, more importantly, opportunities presented in them.

I give you, The Profile of a Customer-Centric Brokerage Company. *Insert cheesy dramatic music here*

Many thanks to CEL&Associates Inc. who actually gathered the data and did the research to come up with all of these lists and the following outline of a customer-centric brokerage company.

A Customer-Centric Brokerage Company should:

1. Possess a real-time 360 degree customer profile.
2. Embrace a continuous feedback process.
3. Hardwire the voice of the customer into all decisions.
4. Invest in talen, training and professional development.
5. Share knowlege of the customer.
6. Commit to service excellence.
7. Possess customer service standards.
8. Build valued and lasting customer relationships.
9. Include customers in company values.
10. Tie commissions to customer satisfaction.
11. Celebrate those who achieve customer satisfaction.
12. Involve customers in solutions.
13. Continuously seek customer feedback.
14. Possess a thorough knowledge of customer needs.
15. Exceed customer expectations.

Some powerful, and some surprising ideas. Stay tuned for more on these topics as I plan on dissecting a number of these ideas in more detail. Have a great weekend, and let me know what you think!

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The Top 7 Things That Frustrate Brokerage Clients Most

So far we've looked at what investors value most in their broker, what tenants value the most in their broker, and what clients value most when selecting a broker. Today, the other side of the coin, the things that really make clients blood boil.

Warning! If you are a commercial real estate broker and you do any of these things, even occasionally, you're sabotaging your business in ways you probably can't even imagine!

The List:

1. Lack and poor quality of communications.
2. Lack of accessiblility to their broker.
   
3. Sloppy work, inaccuracies and poor research.
4. Feeling that they are just a commission source.
5. Brokers not knowing when they are "over their heads".
6. Lack of interest in their business needs and goals.
7. Lone Rangers and "listing-only" solutions.

What really frustrates you when you hire a real estate agent, particularly a commercial broker?

Source: CEL&Associates Inc.

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Top 7 Things Clients Look For When Selecting a Commercial Real Estate Broker

What's the difference between a client and a customer? Well let's take a look at the definitions (from thefreedictionary.com):

Customer:
n. cus·tom·er
1. One that buys goods or services.
2. Informal: An individual with whom one must deal: a tough customer.

Client:
n. cli·ent
1. The party for which professional services are rendered, as by an attorney.
2. A customer or patron: clients of the hotel.
3. A person using the services of a social services agency.
4. One that depends on the protection of another.
5. A client state.
6. Computer Science A computer or program that can download files for manipulation, run applications, or request application-based services from a file server.
[Middle English, from Old French, from Latin clins, client-, dependent, follower; see klei- in Indo-European roots.]

In real estate legal terms, a client is someone with whom a brokerage has entered into an agency relationship wherein they agree to provide certain professional services and owe certain legal obligations to the client. In reality, the client relationship, at least a good one, goes far beyond a mere legal obligation. While a customer is treated fairly and honestly, they don't get the same level of advice or counsel that a client gets, nor do they realize the long-term benefit of a true client relationship; they're just there to buy something and move on.

In my opinion the key really is the relationships. As much as new technology has made the job of finding property and property details easier, and much as it has made the task of marketing and finding real estate quicker, it cannot replace the human connection that face to face relationships build. I don't care how much you Twitter or write in your blog or how much time you spend on Facebook! These are good tools to start the conversation, but the connections, the relationships are the ticket.

Given this, it's no surprise that #1 on the list of things most valued by potential clients is the relationship with the broker. If the client doesn't feel a connection and doesn't feel that they can trust you, nothing else you do will ever turn them into true clients for life.

Without further ado, the Top 7 Things Clients Look For When Selecting a Commercial Real Estate Broker:

1. Relationship with Broker
2. Prior experience/performance
3. Reputation of firm/brand identity
4. Understanding of their business/objectives
5. Personalized approach/solutions
6. Fee structure
7. Knowledge and advice

I'm always interested in varied opinions, so let me know what you think. Do you agree with this list? What would you change or add to it?

Watch for my next post on this topic: What frustrates brokerage clients most!

Source: CEL&Associates Inc.

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The Top 7 Qualities and Skills That Tenants Value Most in Their Commercial Real Estate Broker

As part of an ongoing look at what consumers want from their real estate broker, today I'm looking at what tenants value the most when choosing a broker to represent them.

Tenant representation is a very specialized field and one that doesn't get the respect it deserves, in my opinion. From a brokerage perspective, it just isn't very sexy. The deals aren't as visible, the commissions (generally) aren't as big as investment deals, and the broker is often seen as just another cost in the transaction rather than bringing the real value that they do add to the process.

So what do tenants look for in a commercial real estate broker? Here are the top 7:

1. Understanding of their business.
2. Open communications and accessibility.
3. A relationship built on trust and concern.
4. Financial/analytical skills and structuring advice.
5. Collaboration and a team approach to their needs.
6. Understanding of the market and opportunities.
7. Accompaniment on building tours.

Source: CEL&Associates Inc.

Did I miss anything? What do you look for?

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HST Has Builders Sprinting

HST has builders sprinting - Yourhome.ca

"We've had a lot of customers sitting on the fence, but because of the tax they're much more willing to seal the deal," says Bazely, owner of Barrie-based Gregor Homes and president of the Ontario Home Builders' Association.

"We've ramped up production so we can close on our homes before the HST takes effect next year."

Bazely says he recently talked to his trades and suppliers to ensure they are ready for winter.

"Every week we lose, we get closer to that July deadline."

The new tax, which combines the PST and the GST, will have an impact on homes worth more than $400,000.

It would add, for example, $6,000 on a $500,000 home – enough money to upgrade to a better kitchen or floors, and a good incentive to close early for many consumers.

A $1 million dollar home gets hit with $36,000 in extra taxes.

An EXTRA $6,0000 on a $500,000 new home! Incredible! How in the world can anyone say that this is good for the economy?

In the GTA a $500,000 new home is not out of the ordinary. The Province will be cashing in on the backs of hardworking Ontarians and our fragile economic recovery is likely to take a serious hit when this ill planned and ill conceived new tax hits the road next year. How can they stick to the story that the average person will only see an increase of $79 per year in spending as a result of this new tax? Do they honestly think we're that stupid?! I hope everyone remembers this when it comes to election time.

McGuinty and his band of *insert expletive here* need to go!

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Canadian Real Estate Sentiment Survey Results

“We’re in the third round of a five round boxing match, but in the first two rounds nobody threw a punch. At some point somebody’s gotta throw a punch.”

Source: REALpac / FPL Canadian Real Estate Sentiment Survey, Fourth Quarter 2009, Released November 3, 2009

I'm sensing a recurring theme on this blog about getting into the game. The time is right to get back into the investing game. Money is flowing, and the economy isn't floundering as badly as some had thought it might still be. Granted, the past 12 months haven't been all peaches and cream, especially in the brokerage world, but contrary to popular perception, the sky hasn't fallen on the Canadian commercial real estate market.

In fact, REALpac just released their Q4 Canadian Real Estate Sentiment Survey and found that, overall, investor sentiment is improving in Canada. It shows that overall sentiment about the market has improved, on their index, from 50 to 68 from Q3 to the beginning of Q4 2009. An impressive improvement to say the least.

So why doesn't the overall market reflect this survey? At least in my corner of the world, Peterborough, Ontario, transactions are WAY down relative to 2008. I did a quick bit of research and found some interesting results.

I compared all MLS® sale transactions recorded by the Peterborough and Kawarthas Association of REALTORS® from January 1 to November 4, 2008 vs. the same period in 2009 (it's an odd time frame, I know, but it seemed like a good idea at the time!). I only looked at transactions over $150,000 in order to weed out the business sales that did not include real estate, and leases that sometimes get recorded as sales.

2008 Number of sales: 39
2009 Number of sales: 26
2008 AVerage sale price: $494,437
2009 Average sale price: $357,385
2008 Average sale to list price ratio: 88.46%
2009 AVerage sale to list price ratio: 73.93%

Of note, there were four transactions over $1M in 2008, including one that was over $2M and only one transaction above $1M in 2009. (Remember, this is a small market with a combined city and county population of only about 135,000 people.)

So what do I see in these numbers?

First, there is an obvious trend toward fewer and smaller deals, including a drastic reduction in transactions over $1M. Secondly, and this is my subjective opinion, there isn't really a lack of interested buyers, rather there's been a significant lack of faith in the market in general on the part of would-be buyers. The perception has been that there ought to be more 'good deals' out there, and that by waiting it out, these 'saavy' buyers will be able to cash in on the distressed assets that must surely be just about ready to come onto the market.

But there haven't been that many distressed properties in Canada. I beleive that a lot of the poor sentiment is spill-over from the US media coverage of the severe slide they've seen in their market. In a recent article on globeinvestor.com, Kirk Kuester, managing director of Colliers was quoted as saying,

"There hasn't been that much distress [in the Canadian market], and if companies do find themselves in a bit of a pinch, it's not that difficult to raise equity on the market."

From the same article:

Brookfield Properties Corp. and its partners have an unexpected problem: They have $5-billion to spend on commercial real estate, but markets have recovered so strongly that they can't find the juicy deals they hoped would lead to 20-per-cent returns.

The stock market's resurgence from March lows has allowed many of the world's most challenged real estate companies to issue stock or sell bonds to solve financial issues brought on by lower rents and higher vacancies. Meanwhile, the sector is showing signs of recovery in Canada, further encouraging landlords to hang on to buildings that had caused concern through the recession.

"There really hasn't been that much out there," said chief executive officer Ric Clark. "When we first started thinking about this, we had many companies on the list as potential targets - the public markets have been so efficient that many have been able to solve their problems."

Brookfield set up a $5-billion real estate investment fund in September with Brookfield Asset Management Inc. and dozens of major institutional investors. The plan was to buy malls and office towers from owners that were struggling to keep tenants and pay mortgages.

While the U.S. market is still going through a historic upheaval (7.9 per cent of lease holders are behind on their payments and one in 10 shopping mall stores sit empty), things have stabilized enough that the consortium is rethinking its ability to score its targeted 20-per-cent return on any investment.

In fact, in the hunt for deals, many Canadian REITs have gone out and raised warchests to buy distressed assets that haven't materialized thus creating the real potential of reducing their stock prices. From theglobeandmail.com:

But what if the market isn't all that distressed? Third-quarter statistics from RealNet Canada Inc. hinted that a rebound is taking hold in Canadian commercial real estate markets after 18 months of contraction. If there aren't deals to be found, the REITs may have watered down their shares without giving shareholders any reason to hope for better payouts in the future.

"Most REITs have taken advantage of the open capital markets," said Mark Rothschild, an analyst at Genuity Capital Markets. "Most management teams have expressed confidence this capital will be used to take advantage of distressed opportunities - we believe that there will not be many extremely accretive acquisition opportunities and ultimately many of the recent offerings will prove dilutive."

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but why aren't investors, large and small, private and institutional, looking at the cost of NOT investing? What is the real cost of inaction and hence lost opportunity? Waiting for the market to become more active and therefore more competetive means that there will only be even higher prices and reduced opportunities in the future.

What will you do? Sit on the ropes, waiting for your oponent to wake up and realize you aren't in the game, and be surprised when you get K.O.'d? If you're ready to get started and need some direction, please drop me a line. Get ready, round 4 is coming up!

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Tips for Increasing the Cash Flow of Your Business

Need more cash? What business owner doesn’t these days? Even if your revenues have remained stable during this recession, your company may still be short of cash if it’s tied up in accounts receivable, inventory or capital equipment.

Thomas Comollo, a partner with B2B CFO in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. says there are several “tricks of the trade” that well-managed companies use to maximize their cash flow. These policies can be used by any sized business. Here are a few that will help maximize the cash in your checking account:

• Shorten your cash conversion cycle. This is the time that it takes a business to convert a sale to cash. The shorter, the better. Dell keeps its cash conversion cycle one of the best in the business by getting paid up front, ordering parts only after the order has been received and paid for, and not carrying excessive inventory.
• Reduce accounts receivable. Consider billing by e-mail so customers get invoices more quickly. Tighten your collection policy, and follow up as soon as invoices become overdue.
• Reduce inventory. Don’t order parts or supplies until you absolutely need them. Limit access to inventory to prevent theft, and get rid of obsolete inventory immediately.
• Stretch out your payments. Don’t pay vendor bills until they are due, and negotiate longer terms. Don’t be afraid to ask for 60 days to pay. Be careful though, don't create a situation where you start paying late - your good credit is too important!
  

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5 Tips for Negotiating a Renewal of Your Commercial Lease

Your lease is nearly up, and it's time to renew. Now is a great time, experts say. The recession and resulting downsizings, bankruptcies and corporate closures have created opportunities for companies looking to stay in place and renew their leases. Vacancies are up nationwide, and subleases are driving down rents. That makes landlords nervous-and anxious to retain their current tenants.

To attract new tenants, landlords often offer concessions such as free rent or buildout allowances. But renewing tenants have received little more than a rent hike-until now.

Here's how to get the best deal on your lease renewal:

1. Hire an expert. Consider engaging a broker who specializes in tenant representation. A qualified broker can help you negotiate your lease--to your financial advantage.
2. Start early. Don't wait until the end of your lease. Allow time to negotiate with your landlord and to research alternative locations should he be unwilling to bend. Experts suggest beginning the process about a year before your lease expires.
3. Keep information to yourself. To optimize your bargaining position, keep key information to yourself. For example, don't let your landlord know that his location is the only one that works for your business.
4. Do your research. Always have several other alternative locations that will work for you. Get proposals from each so you can compare the details of each deal. Then approach your landlord with comps. A landlord is only likely to give you the same type of deal new tenants get if he believes you have alternatives and might leave.
5. Get legal advice. Have a commercial real estate attorney review the lease before you sign it.

Been through the process already? I'd love to hear how you made out and what worked best for you in the comments.

If your lease is up for renewal soon, I'd be happy to assist in any way I can. Just drop me a line and let me know how I can help.

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Further Indicators That it's Time to Buy?

The Analysis and Opinion

The evidence is compelling and the research is strong. This great article from the National Real Estate Investor, gives some really good background on the spread between US 10 year Treasury yields and historic cap rates.

As of the second quarter of 2009, the cap rate spread ... has widened to more than 400 basis points. We believe this trend reflects increased risk-aversion among investors, who are pricing in a negative outlook for real estate.

During the recession of the early 2000s, cap rate spreads also rose to more than 400 basis points, making real estate appear undervalued relative to Treasuries. We believe that entering the real estate market during such periods of above-average spreads may be advantageous to long-term investors.

When most investors are taking a wait and see approach to investing, it's often the right time for those with the vision to start investing. And there is evidence that you should start soon:

These periods of high cap rates and spreads often do not last long. From 2003 to 2007, spreads narrowed significantly as the economy recovered and property values appreciated.

As the economy begins to rebound and real estate fundamentals improve, investors will likely become less risk-averse. We believe it is likely that more capital will flow into the sector in 2010. Consequently, we expect cap rate spreads to eventually narrow gradually, reverting toward the mean, and repeating the cycle.

My thanks to the Dirt Lawyer, David Stejkowski at The Dirt Lawyer's Blog for finding and sharing this. You should consider following David on Twitter: @DirtLawyer for insightful and timely posts on commercial real estate topics.

Other Indicators

via Retail Traffic today:

Bill Rudin, Rudin Management, and Steven Roth, Vornado Realty Trust, talk about their views on the real estate market - where we are and where we're going.

Steven Roth, "We're optimistic that there things, you know, moving in the right direction."

Bill Rudin talks about wanting tenants to sign short term leases, 2 years or so, so that they can play the market as it goes back up i.e. increasing rents along with strengthening markets vs. the tenants who want to lock in now for longer term leases, 10-20 years, now because there is growing sentiment that this is the bottom and they want to take advantage of that.

Really good take on the US commercial real estate market. Thanks to Retail Traffic for finding and posting this video.

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Why Commercial Real Estate is NOT the Next Bubble

For the last several months, I've been saying that commercial real estate is not collapsing.

John Levy, president of the John B. Levy & Company, shares some really good insights on why he believes this too. First and foremost is that the reduction in values in commercial real estate and the necessity of refinancing undervalued assets are not a surprise. This is something that we've been watching for some time and is not a 'bubble about to burst'. It's already happening and, in fact, institutional investors are preparing for it by readying their funds to take advantage of the situation. Really informative video that's worth every second to watch and does an excellent job of putting the current real estate market in perspective.

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Why Peterborough Retail Rents Are Cheap!

via MSN Money: The world's most expensive shopping districts.

According to real estate advisor Cushman & Wakefield, it costs an average of $300 USD per square foot to set up shop along Bloor, the street that stretches through the heart of the city.

Often, when asked about retail rents in Peterborough, we're surprised when the reaction we get is one of disbelief, "You get how much?" As if $16-22 per foot for new retail space in Peterborough, Ontario is some kind of out of this world number that can't possibly be correct.

You haven't seen anything yet!

Check out some of these statistics as gathered by Cushman & Wakefield in their Main Streets Across the World Report (registration required, but free):

$300 - Bloor Street West, Toronto
$110 - Queen Street West, Toronto
$200 - St. Catherine West, Montreal
$50 - Sussex Drive, Ottawa
$50 - 17th Avenue SW, Calgary
$210 - Robson Street, Vancouver

Still think $16 is expensive?

Now, I know that the naysayers among you will cry, "But there's a heckuva lot more money passing through the doors along Bloor West, than Peterborough!" And to a point, I'd agree. There is more money passing through the tills on Bloor Street - but enough to justify a rental rate increase of 1,838%?! Are the retailers selling 1,838% more per foot? I think not. (Note: If anyone can find some research on sales per foot in Toronto vs. Peterborough, I'd love to see it.)

Retail spending in Peterborough, on a per capita basis, has averaged over 16% higher than the provincial average for the last 6 years according to the most recent GPAEDC Community Profile.

Construction costs are lower in Peterborough, but only slightly. Using rsmeans.com Quick Cost Estimator, I found that a 10,000 foot retail store would cost about $132 per foot to build in Peterborough versus $139 per foot in Toronto - only a 5% difference that doesn't come close to making up the difference in lease rates.

Land is far cheaper in Peterborough though, and this does go a long way to making retail space much more cost effective both for tenants and landlords. But that's not my point...

My point...

Peterborough, like a lot of other mid sized towns around Ontario, is a bargain!

Regardless of what it costs to buy land and build in a given community, from the retailers perspective, the sales forecast for each store on a 'dollars per square foot' scale should be the true measure of a retailers success in a given marketplace. All other expenses, including rent, come out of this top line revenue number. If a retailer can sell $500 worth of product in Peterborough and it only cost $210 to do so vs. $490 in Toronto - which is the better location?

Let me know if you need a little help with the math... :)

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